(Disclosure: I’m not a Democrat, though I have voted for a few . . . . .)
There are three memes that seem to keep cropping up regarding the Democratic primaries:
1. The race for the Democratic primary is now between Dean and Clark;
2. Dean really energizes some people; but,
3. Dean really turns other people off (including more than a few Democrats).
These memes generally translate into three types of speculation by pundits:
1. Kos, for instance, thinks that Dean will likely win the nomination, but that it’ll be a battle. Dean, after all, has got some serious shortcomings (also see Glenn Reynolds on this). As I’ve blogged before, Kos is hoping and praying that, if Dean wins, these shortcoming can be overcome by bolting Clark to Dean, Voltron-style, as Dean’s VP.
2. Andrew Sullivan and Jonah Goldberg think that Dean will be the winner, and that his alleged shortcomings (anti-war, lefty-looking) are actually a benefit. According to this theory, Dean gives voters a clear alternative to Bush. (What seems to be simmering beneath both posts is the unexpressed hope that a decisive victory by Bush over Dean will confirm Bush’s mandate.)
3. Finally, some say that regardless of the winner, there’s a strong likelihood of serious shenanigans. For instance, Kevin Drum suggests the possibility of a brokered convention (more on why this could occur from Moe Lane, below), while Kaus has suggested that Dean may quit the party if he loses.
Let me now offer a fourth possibility: Dean has a strong base, but he turns a heckova lot of people off (myself included). It’s not at all clear that he can overcome this insta-hate, and reach out beyond his current followers. Moreover, because Dean’s the front runner, each of his gaffes is getting major play, and Dean’s getting pummeled by his primary opponents and by ill-conceived ads from the Club for Growth. All of this is occuring against a backdrop of Clark’s emergence as a credible Not Dean.
The polls tell the story: Dean, more than probably any other candidate, depends on grass-roots momentum. But his momentum is fading, and he’s rapidly losing ground to Clark. Dean’s playing defense for the first time, and I’m not sure he has it in him.
So, here’s my prediction: The worm has turned. Dean has peaked. Clark is going to be the Democratic nominee (although it may require a brokered convention). The sole question that remains is: Will Dean bring his magnificent organization over to the Clark campaign when Clark asks Dean to be his VP?
Have fun, kids.
yes.
yes.
“Yes, the worm has turned” or “Yes, we will all be assimilated by the Clark-bot”?
von 😉
You know, I think that people are going to keep on saying that Dean can’t possibly win the election… until he does. He’s plainly the most popular candidate for President in the basic sense of having more people than any other candidate who care about getting him elected. And, when the ballots come down, being the most popular candidate is ultimately what gets you elected.
Neither Gore nor Bush were “popular” candidates – they were party candidates. Neither of them got the voters out. Dean has proved he’s the kind of candidate who can get the voters out – and even for those who don’t see Dean as the best choice (and I admit there are strong arguments for Clark) there are a lot of people out there who see the next election as the opportunity to get rid of Bush, by the best available method.
The sole question that remains is: If Dean looses the nomination, will he run as a Green.
Dean has proved he’s the kind of candidate who can get the voters out
Yeah, in Vermont. Nobody else has cast a single ballot for him yet.
If Dean loses, he’ll steam for a few days, calm down, realize he has a bright future as a Dem and will play ball (and will encourage his supporters to do so). He’ll be named a senior cabinet member.
Of course, I don’t understand Dem politics, so I’m probably exactly wrong.
Of course, I don’t understand Dem politics, so I’m probably exactly wrong.
I don’t either, Spc — and I wrote the post!
You know, I think that people are going to keep on saying that Dean can’t possibly win the election… until he does.
You’re absolutely right, Jesurgislac, that pundits tend to puff themselves up by pointing out all of Dean’s drawbacks and confidentially predicting that Dean can’t win. (Whattay’all lookin’ at me fer?) I agree that, whomever the Democrats nominate, it’s going to be a closer race than some are prediction.
But I also think that Dean’s supporters (and Dean himself, when he asked Terry McAuliffe to call off the other candidates’ attacks) assume too much when they suggest that Dean is the answer. I fear it’s all dragon-reflecting subglasses. Frankly, Dean hasn’t really been tested yet. The easiest place in the world to be as a candidate is to be the up-and-coming outsider (Wes Clark, I’m looking at you). Until recently, Dean has had the luxury of being in that position.
Now that Dean has had a couple weeks as the clear front runner, we’ve seen him either stumble or crack (depending on your personal view of the man). It hasn’t been pretty.
Dean’s test, which begins right now, is to prove that he can overcome his stumbles, watch his mouth, propose new programs, fight off a challenger, and regain the momentum. This is the very first time he’s been asked to do any of these things, and, worse, the tactic he employed to fuel his rise — attack relentlessly on Iraq — will have no effect on Clark.
So Dean’s fighting a brand new battle in front of a jaded (and getting jadier) public, in the middle of which he has to change his tactics. That’s tough for any politician to pull off. Based on what I’ve seen, it’ll be especially tough for Dean.
I don’t think that Dean’s supporters really understand how vulnerable their man is right now. I suppose we’ll find out.
von
If Dean loses, he’ll steam for a few days, calm down, realize he has a bright future as a Dem and will play ball (and will encourage his supporters to do so). He’ll be named a senior cabinet member.
Actually, spc67, I think you understand Dem politics better than you let on. This is all much more routine than its being made out to be – filtered through the reinforcing lenses of the blogs and the partisan divide, we are seeing a lot of theories presented as credible that just aren’t: Hillary is still planning a stealth run; Dean will yank all the troops out of Iraq the second he takes office; Gore is actually counting on a brokered convention so he can step in as the savior of a divided party (Aha! That’s why he endorsed Dean! OF COURSE!); if Dean loses, he will quit the party and run as a Green (see TTWD above); etc. It’s all nonsense. Dean, should he lose, will turn on his heel like a good soldier and throw it all behind Clark. When he said that his people wouldn’t vote for “an establishment politician,” he was reinforcing a campaign theme, not seriously threatening to leave the party, for god’s sake (though Josh Marshall was right to ding him for that statement).
st, is Bradley going to be Gore’s running mate, given Bill’s recent support of Dean.
When he said that his people wouldn’t vote for “an establishment politician,” he was reinforcing a campaign theme, not seriously threatening to leave the party, for god’s sake (though Josh Marshall was right to ding him for that statement).
Yes, he was–although note Dean’s move in the Iowa debate, which was to pledge to “vigorously support” whoever the nominee is, ask all of the other candidates to raise their hands if they would also do so. Whatever else happens, that moment was a defining point.
Von, go here go to question #4 and compare Dean and Wes’s numbers.
You should like the mix.
von, you’re not a Democrat? I’ll be darned.
I’ve been chugging for Clark/Dean for some time now. Even though I’m not sure what “chugging for” means, exactly.
Would Dean be Clark’s VP? I have no idea. The point may not come up, since Clark may not win the nomination, but instead just turn the primaries into a long, bloody slog until Dean crashes, riddled with harpoons, Moby Dick-like, through the convention.
I have always held that Clark and Dean can both beat Bush, given the right external conditions (no October surprises – this election is going to be very event-dependent, kids). In fact, in the Democratic field, the only “unelectable” candidates I’ve ever seen (minus the Sharpton Circus Trio) are Gephardt (the Democratic Dole) and Lieberman (who has all the charisma and vote-garnering power of a used dishrag). The “Dean is unelectable” meme got started back when Dean first started getting attention because the media needed something to peg him with, and like the lemmings they are, they don’t break from their script (“Gore is a liar, Bush is a well-meaning heroic goofball, Hillary Clinton is a scheming power-mad lesbian who will stop at nothing in her master plan to sieze the White House and use it and her uterus to destroy American values”). It didn’t hold up then and it doesn’t hold up now. Dean isn’t any more gaffe-prone than Bush, he’s more centrist than Kerry and Gephardt, and he’s got the best organization of anyone running for president, but he’s unelectable?
I prefer Clark for a number of reasons, but I’d be more than happy with Dean, and I’m certain both of them have the potential to kick the crap out of Dubya come November.
The sole question that remains is: If Dean looses the nomination, will he run as a Green.
Wonder Dog, this is the “sole question” primarily for righties who need a new silly theory to spout now that it’s too late for Our Cruel Empress Hillary to get into the primaries. The actual questions are those asked by st and munster truck, which are, to wit,
1) Would the Deanketeers work as hard for a non-Dean nominee as they would for Dean? Probably not, unless the likes of TNR and National Review are right when they say Dean’s appeal is more about Bush-hatred than optimism about Dean. But they’ll still vote for the Democratic nominee whoever it is, because they’ve become investe in the process. spc67 is correct to guess that Dean will encourage his people to get in line behind whoever the nominee is.
1A) Will a non-Dean nominee have the same on-the-ground door-knocking power and quick-hit fundraising power as Dean?
2) Would Dean accept a VP slot?
2A) Would Clark?
It’s unfortunate that our two most promising candidates, and the most likely participants in a two-man race, are the ones most likely to turn it into a pissing contest.
3) Can either of them beat Bush? Sure. Is the case slightly easier to make if it’s Clark? Probably.
You should like the mix.
It does show that Dean’s got real problems with his unfavorability ratings.
von, you’re not a Democrat? I’ll be darned.
I’d definitely fit into the category of Democratic-leaning. But I have and do support various Republicans (Richard Lugar, for instance, as well as some local guys you’d surely never have heard of). And the Democrats whom I vote for are almost invariably centrists.
(Call me a Lieberman Democrat, if you must, though I’m frankly getting tired of his St. Joe schtick.)
Would Dean be Clark’s VP? I have no idea.
Maybe not. Dean definitely ain’t lacking in pride.
Seth, well if Dean was a part of the Democratic establishment, no issue on his support of the nominee. But as Dean doesn’t strike me as senatorial material, what does he have to lose if he runs as a Green.
1) Would the Deanketeers work as hard for a non-Dean nominee as they would for Dean? Probably not, unless the likes of TNR and National Review are right when they say Dean’s appeal is more about Bush-hatred than optimism about Dean. But they’ll still vote for the Democratic nominee whoever it is, because they’ve become investe in the process.
Based on my experience talking to people at the Baltimore Meetup for Dean, there is a decent-sized chunk of the people coming out that would go knocking on doors for Rocky the Flying Squirrel if he were running against Bush. It’s hard to put a percentage on it, and a lot would depend on just how it had come to pass that Dean was not the nominee, but I think that at least 25% of the people coming out today would stay on as reasonably active volunteers for whoever the nominee actually is.
If the nominee had worked to appeal to the grassroots organizers, and hadn’t pissed the Deaniacs off too intensely, it could go as high as 75% or more, in my estimation.
Based on my experience talking to people at the Baltimore Meetup for Dean, there is a decent-sized chunk of the people coming out that would go knocking on doors for Rocky the Flying Squirrel if he were running against Bush.
This is no exaggeration. The power of the “Anybody But Bush” convictions that exist among many Democratic activists–particularly Deaniacs–should not be underestimated. Not even a Lieberman candidacy would keep me from campaigning up until the day of the vote–and if you know me, that’s saying something.
But as Dean doesn’t strike me as senatorial material, what does he have to lose if he runs as a Green.
Uhhhh…the chance to see Bush out of office? Maybe I’m not as cynical about Dean as you, but one of his strengths as a candidate is that by and large he holds the convictions he spouts, and wouldn’t risk the continuation of Bush in office with a quixotic run.
Much like the power of the “Anybody But Clinton” convictions that existed amongst many Republican activists? 😉
The problem for the Dean Dongs and other Bush-haters is that most of the rest of the country does not share their irrational hatred of Bush and what plays well amongst the Party Faithful will not necessarily play well among the rest of the nation.
BTW: I did catch a brief glimpse of the circular firing squad this weekend. I noticed the Gephardt is still repeating the lie about “losing three millions jobs.” I guess this idiot doesn’t realize that if 136 million people were employed when Bush took office in January of 2001 and 138.6 million people were employed in November of 2003, then that is a net increase of 2.6 million jobs through war and recession.
I am also looking forward to Howard Dean explaining to the Iowa caucus voters (whom he openly and vocally despised a few years ago) his proud role as the “architect” of the North East Dairy Compact – one of the most destructive corporate welfare and regional protectionist programs in the nation. It should play really well amongst dairy farmers in Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin to know that Dean proudly helped to punish our farmers in order to subsidize inefficient Vermont operations.