…sparked by something that Matt Stinson said in comments:
if Bush seems like he’s going to win in a landslide, Republicans may sit on their hands come election day and cost the GOP several vital Senate and House seats
You have to admit, that’d be an interesting strategy by the Democrats: nominate somebody who that they know won’t win*, accept that the Republicans will get the Presidency… and then target the in-play Congressional seats. After all, only fifty seats in the House are ever really in play for any given election, and even Senate seats are usually much more safe than not. They could pick their shots, spend their money wisely and prep for 2006 and 2008.
Well, the Democrats probably won’t do anything of the sort (hard to blame them, really), but I think that the gambit would work under the right circumstances.
Moe
*Note that I am carefully not saying who that person would be, or even implying.
Moe, I mean this with all possible respect, but: dude, lay off the NyQuil. (How is that cold by the way? I’ve got a nasty one too.) My guess is we have a better shot at the presidency than the House (what with redistricting & the general lack of competitive races) or the Senate (what with the seats that are up, and the Southern democrats retiring). A blowout loss in the presidential election might depress Republican turnout, but it might depress Democratic turnout even more. 2002 proved that a conservative-led GOP threatening to take over all branches of government is not enough to get Democrats to get out and vote–not when the party is incompetently led.
This isn’t to say that we shouldn’t try for Congress. There’s a lot of damage to undo, and I can’t see how to begin with DeLay in charge of the House. But playing to lose the presidential election is a horrible way to win Congress–our best hope is to nationalize the election like the Republicans did in 1994.
It’s one thing to say, we might lose no matter what and we need to look long term. It’s another thing to concede defeat.
“Moe, I mean this with all possible respect, but: dude, lay off the NyQuil.”
Hey, I never said that I was a pro at this, or anything. 🙂
“(How is that cold by the way? I’ve got a nasty one too.)”
Getting over it, finally: I actually had an appetite and everything today. I should be good in time to go back to work Monday, dammit.
Hey, I don’t think Dems would do it on purpose. It’s just the law of unintended consequences at work 😉 Who knew Clinton would be the death knell for Democratic Congressional dominance?
I have to agree with Katherine here – the White House is a way more winnable target, and without a highly visible national campaign at stake, it’s difficult to coordinate and target turnout in three dozen House districts and five or so Senate seats (not to mention fundraise).
I think that the election will be contentious enough down to the wire that neither side’s base will be entirely content to sit on their hands – both sides feel too much is at stake. And most of the key Congressional races are in places where the Bush base lives.