I think Matt Yglesias (who’s 23 today*) has got it ’bout right regarding gay marriage: It’s generational and it’s inevitable.
Some social conservative types have speculated to me that the overwhelming pro-gay sentiment among young people can be counteracted by the natural conservatizing effects of aging. Folks who think that are, I think, seriously underestimating the extent of the young-old disjoint on this topic.
Support for gay marriage isn’t something that one’s likely to outgrow, because it’s essentially founded on the notion that gay marriage is a matter of civil rights. If you don’t buy that proposition, then you probably can’t be convinced to support gay marriage. (Some libertarians among you might be convinced that marriage in general is none of the State’s business, but that’s merely an extreme version of the “civil rights” argument.)
Once you buy the proposition that gay marriage is a matter of civil rights, however, it’s not easily discarded. You don’t wake up one day and say, hmm, now that I’m 35 (or 45 or 55), it’s time for me to outgrow my youthful notions of “civil rights.” This isn’t like, “man, I used to like the kine bud, but now I got a job, a house, and two kids in school, so you knowwwwww.” This is a world-view issue, not a life-style issue.
Thus, I predict that within 30 years laws permitting gay marriage will be the rule, rather than the exception.
von
P.S. So you can judge your messenger’s bias, know that I strongly support gay marriage (though I believe it should be accomplished by legislative means, not lawsuits). Know also that, just because I’ve framed the debate as a civil rights issue, I do not believe that those who oppose gay marriage are necessarily homophobic; nor are they evil; nor are they bigots. Many base their opinion on deeply-held religious beliefs that root themselves in the highest and kindest aspirations of humanity, and which we would all do well to respect.
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