by publius
I’ve enjoyed the back and forth on the Iran litmus test. I think Hilzoy and Von have covered a lot of good ground, but I want to add a couple of important points.
First, everyone should be using the word “Publosonian,” as Von did. If you’re not, start. Do it now. Publosonian.
Second, and somewhat more importantly, a common assumption in the Iran debate shared across the political spectrum is that our ongoing threat of military force against Iran is necessary to keep the country honest. This assumption is essentially the “credible threat” theory that plays such a prominent role in game theory. Von expresses it well:
The possibility of attack is significant. It creates a bit of doubt — we don’t think they’ll attack, we don’t think they possibly can attack, but what if they do? Anyone who has been involved in negotiations (or litigation, for that matter) knows the value of doubt. Doubt of radical action is a sure way to keep folks honest and on point.
This is an example of an idea that is generally accurate in most situations, but inaccurate as applied to Iran. In fact, I would even argue that continuing to “credibly threaten” Iran militarily is the source of — not the solution to — many of our current problems. Frankly, the credible threat of military force is creating the conditions under which military force will become more likely.
I can’t take credit for this idea – I heard it at a policy lunch a few weeks ago. The speaker there noted several specific ways in which our ongoing military threat against Iran is actually undermining our interests, and I tend to agree to them.