A Brokered Convention

by

by wj

Yes, it is still way early, and the Republican convention a long time away. However, the question that is arising is whether it is still possible to stop Trump — and if so, for how much longer will this be true?

Let us suppose, for the sake of discussion, that nobody actually “stops” Trump. That is, he arrives in Cleveland with a plurality of the convention delegates — but only a plurality, not a majority. That means, for Trump to get the nomination requires that, after failing to win on the first ballot, he needs to win over at least some of the delegates of other candidates. On the other side, beating Trump for the nomination requires some other candidate to collect almost all of the delegates from the other candidates.

The question becomes: which scenario is more likely. Or, to put it another way, which candidate has made the nastier attacks on the rest of the field. How negative are the delegates on those other candidates who have been trashing their boy?

221 thoughts on “A Brokered Convention”

  1. Mayor of Cleveland turns the venue of the GOP nominating convention to an “open-carry” facility, double-dog-dares OH Gov. Kasich and GOP leg. to reverse it.
    Actually, I’m not even sure that action by the Mayor is required…there’s been some ALEC-ish legislation going around that makes it super-easy for individuals or groups to sue to remove local firearms policies, and difficult (and financially painful) to defend.
    So it might just take ONE Ohio patriot to stand up for the 2nd Amendment. One can hope.

  2. If they award the nomination to anyone else despite Trump having a plurality, he will go independent and be it just out of spite.
    I could not even blame him.

  3. A brokered convention is even less likely than Cruz immediately suspending his campaign and endorsing Rubio. Which looks like the only way Trump isn’t going to be the nominee.

  5. Having just read Rick Perlstein’s “The Invisible Bridge“,* which contains an extensive discussion of the 1976 GOP convention (which was not brokered as there was only one ballot, but felt like it), a brokered GOP convention in the age of social media that involves Donald Freaking Trump would likely blot out the sun. Or collapse upon itself into a black hole. Maybe both.
    But don’t count out the possibility of Trump delegates defecting, so it’s not like Rubes needs to get all the non-Trump delegates on his side. That said, I have no idea how it would go over if Trump has 45% of the delegates, Rubes 30% and Cruz 25% heading into the convention and Rubes comes out as the nominee because of wheeling and dealing.
    You think some of the GOP base is angry at the “establishment” now….

  6. There is also this tidbit from the NYtimes (their front page blurb on this story):
    As Donald J. Trump inches closer to being the party’s presidential nominee, Republicans fear he won’t back the conservative agenda pushed by Speaker Paul D. Ryan.
    Since when does a D or R POTUS follow the agenda of a D or R Speaker? When in the hell has that ever been an expectation? I swear, more sh1t is getting made up in this election year than ever before, with the SCOTUS vacancy being just the (far and away) leading example.

  7. Nigel, that article you link to has one snetence that struck me as significant: “Unless Nevada is somehow very unusual, Mr Trump’s ceiling may be a rising one!”
    But Nevada is very unusual. Its population’s level of anti-(Federal) government sentiment is exceptionally high. (It’s no coincidence that the Bundys are from Nevada.)
    Rather than reading Trump’s getting 46% in Nevada as an ominous sign, it could equally well be read as a positive one — if Trump can’t get above 46% in Nevada, how popular can he be overall?
    Which is not to say that he necessarily will revert to his previous 35% level. But if he does, it won’t be a surprising reversal of his fortunes. And still won’t necessarily keep him from hoovering up a substantial fraction of the delegates, thanks to winner-take-all states where 35% might be a plurality.

  8. This makes me laugh:
    Billionaire Donald Trump has a substantial lead among Florida Republicans in his bid for the presidential nomination, beating out rival Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) on his home turf by 16 percentage points, according to a Qunnipiac poll released Thursday.
    In Florida.

  9. Rather than reading Trump’s getting 46% in Nevada as an ominous sign, it could equally well be read as a positive one — if Trump can’t get above 46% in Nevada, how popular can he be overall?

    Excellent point. It gives me hope. Not much, but some.
    A more direct point is that Trump has only a few percent of the delegates at this point, so it’s a bit premature to panic.
    For me, it’s more like a lingering dread.
    I think a lot of the Republican base likes Trump because he’s angry. But: you know who else was angry?

  10. Suppose Trump wins in Florida. That pretty much takes Rubio out — if he can’t even carry his home state, what good is he as a candidate? So who does the party “establishment” turn to next?
    What I suspect we see over the next few weeks is whether Rubio, or Cruz, or Kasich can beat Trump. Even with home-court advantage. If only one does, the anti-Trump forces will likely coalesce around him. Whether than is enough . . . well we shall see.
    And if two or all three do, then we continue as now for a couple of months more. Great fun for political theater junkies; not so much for the rest of us.

  11. The only way Rubio wins is to pick an old guy as running mate right now. Unheard of I suppose, but Florida wont vote for “another first term Senator”. Hard enough for me to do and I think he is pretty smart. I spent some of the weekend talking to friends that are pretty thoughtful and still for Trump.
    To a person the answer was that he was the only candidate that wanted to make the country better, something they could be proud of. However, I get the sense it is more than that. He is the candidate that tells them they are ok and America is great and will be greater. They are tired of politicians telling them the country sucks and its their fault. But what they say is that he will make America great. Again.
    Lots of “yes buts” when confronted with what a whack job he is. Its not that they don’t see his faults, they think Hilary’s are worse(useless, lying, criminal), Bernie’s a commie and the Republicans are owned by special interests. It only leaves him.

  12. I think a lot of the Republican base likes Trump because he’s angry. But: you know who else was angry?
    The Hulk?
    wj – What I suspect we see over the next few weeks is whether Rubio, or Cruz, or Kasich can beat Trump. Even with home-court advantage. If only one does, the anti-Trump forces will likely coalesce around him. Whether than is enough . . . well we shall see.
    If Trump sweeps Super Tuesday, or sweeps everything other than Texas, then I think it’s over. No one is coalescing around Ted Cruz, I must say, and if Cruz wins TX he sticks in the race through the March 15 primaries at least, further sucking delegates/votes from Rubio making Trump that much harder to catch.
    Because GOP voters not only like someone who is angry, but to vote for the “winner” too.

  13. They are tired of politicians telling them the country sucks and its their fault.
    I’m trying to recall a politician who says that the country sucks.
    That the country has problems which need to be addressed? Sure. That some groups (none of whom are Trump supporters) are at fault — typically bankers, the very rich, etc.? Sure. But that the people who are Trump supporters are at fault? I don’t recall that.

  15. Florida wont vote for “another first term Senator”

    Instead, they’ll go for a 0th term Senator? Someone with zero experience in any public office?
    If you think Trump is not so bad, you should spend some time wading through his Twitter feed, which he updates relentlessly. Everyone who thinks Trump is not so bad should do that.
    It’s almost 100% cheering on the Trump brand while sneering at everyone who opposes the goal of Trump in the White House. Seriously. It reads like a cartoon supervillain wannabe.

  18. Oh. Trump would have made an outstanding counterpart for Vince McMahon.
    No wrestling experience required.

  20. No slart, they clearly see the 0th term senator as a successful businessman with deep experience who understands how to fix the economy. He is Mitt except when people give him a hard time he says f you, I can fix this. Louder than anyone else.
    Because, see. its the economy stupid. These people are still struggling and Obama keeps talking about how great a job he has done fixing the economy. They just call bs.
    Second, its the wall. But more than the wall its the desire to have pride in “our” country. There are a plurality of the people in this country who believe this is not going to be our country very much longer. It will be their country.
    Their country. Because for generations immigrants came here legally because the most important thing for them was to become Americans. The illegal immigrants want the benefits of living in America but have no demonstrated desire to become Americans, They don’t learn the language,blah blah. The wall is just a symbol for that sense of “us” having a country. Everyone wants one.
    People claim racism, that’s really not a fair assessment in general. It is xenophobia maybe, but your not paranoid if somethings is after you.

  22. But that the people who are Trump supporters are at fault? I don’t recall that.
    you’ve become so accustomed to it that you don’t even see the crushing hand of the Leftist PC Police blaming the common man for everything.

  23. Wait…a guy who has zero experience with anything at all related to government, and zero powers to do anything at all WRT the economy, is thought to be a credible person to step in and fix the economy?
    WTEF?
    The wall is just, pardon my English, fncking retarded. Asinine. Idiotic. Naïve. Anyone who’s given the matter even a few seconds of thought ought to be able to see the glaring shortcomings in such an idea. We’ve talked about them. Cost. Effectiveness. Ease of circumvention. The sheer ridiculousness of building a wall thousands of miles long to keep out Mexicans who, by and large, don’t even want to come here so much anymore. Don’t take my word for that, though. GIYF.
    I don’t know if Trump is a racist or not. It doesn’t matter. The fact that he’s a loudmouthed braggart tinpot tyrant with no motivation other than win by any means possible was, for me, enough.
    I don’t think we need President Donald Trump in order to be proud of our country. Pride in our country is not our problem. Even if it were: Trump isn’t going to do anything to rectify where pride is lacking. Because those people are going to loathe Trump as much or more than they’ve loathed a previous President of any political bent. They’re going to be less proud of our country, and I will also be less proud.
    Finally: if you think Mexicans are after you, I think you have bigger issues than who’s in the WH.

  24. Wait…a guy who has zero experience with anything at all related to government, and zero powers to do anything at all WRT the economy, is thought to be a credible person to step in and fix the economy?
    But slart that cant be. Obama fixed the economy, bush screwed it, it hasn’t been good since Clinton did such a great job with after Bush 1 screwed up what Ronnie had fixed from Jimmie. What do you mean he cant do anything about it?

  27. Also, this:
    The illegal immigrants want the benefits of living in America but have no demonstrated desire to become Americans
    seems not quite accurate, to me.
    I mean, they came here, right? Often at risk of their own lives.
    It’s a somewhat moot question, since the option of actually becoming Americans isn’t really available to most of them.

  28. Obama fixed the economy, bush screwed it

    If you believe either of those things, you have no business voting. Or complaining about Democrats making lousy arguments, because this one is a real stinker.
    For my own part, I think using the arguments of others that I have ridiculed as a sort of in-your-face tactic for justifying voting the latest idiot into the Oval Office is…unclean.

  29. Crap can only get said so many times before people believe it. All people. When everyone argues, all the time about which president was best for the economy eventually people internalize it. Even if intellectually they would discount it.

  32. from Nigel’s link:

    One emblematic late August analysis found CNN giving Trump 78 percent of its GOP campaign coverage. He’s still at it: an analysis of news in the days following his proposal earlier this month to ban Muslim immigration found Trump getting 25 times as many media mentions as the other 13 Republican candidates combined.
    …
    Trump, of course, has (like Romney) the deterrent effect of a potentially large self-funded war chest at the ready, but he has never needed to spend it. He’s spent only $217,000 on campaign ads, compared to $28.9 million by Jeb and between $2 million and $11 million by each of Rubio, Christie, John Kasich, and Ben Carson.

    it’s been obvious for a long time that Trump is the media’s creation. but, wow. the numbers are still shocking. CNN should be burned to the ground.

  33. Their country. Because for generations immigrants came here legally because the most important thing for them was to become Americans. The illegal immigrants want the benefits of living in America but have no demonstrated desire to become Americans, They don’t learn the language,blah blah.
    Which is exactly the same thing said about every previous wave of immigrants.
    Except for the complaint about them immigrating illegally, but before 1917 (when most of the Germans, Irish, Italians, Scandinavians, etc. arrived) there basically were no immigration restrictions, so illegality was moot.
    Also, it’s common to assume that anyone who speaks Spanish is an illegal immigrant, regardless of their actual status. Around here, there’s as significant chance that they are Puerto Rican, and natural-born US citizens.

  34. there’s not much evidence to suggest that Trump’s supporters know history, or law, or economics, or policy. or that they even care about those things. but they do know that he looks like a tough guy who says he’s going to take on all the people and institutions and problems that they think they have. and he’s going to do it with style and class and panache.
    he’s a textbook demagogue.
    and the GOP is absolutely stuck with him.

  35. Obama fixed the economy, bush screwed it
    If you believe either of those things, you have no business voting. Or complaining about Democrats making lousy arguments, because this one is a real stinker.
    Not a total stinker, slarti. Certainly presidents tend to get way too much credit or blame for the state of the economy. But still, Obama did get a stimulus bill passed and it did help matters. So give the man some credit.
    Incidentally, I happen to think that McCain might well have done something similar, but who knows.

  36. Marty: a successful businessman with deep experience who understands how to fix the economy.
    Slarti: a guy who has zero experience with anything at all related to government
    Wait a minute here. Trump’s approach to making money has everything to do with government. Specifically, with getting special treatment from government for himself and his projects. So it is really unfair to say he has no experience with government.
    And equally wrong to say that he knows how to fix the economy . . . unless you think that government is the solution. But I don’t think Marty is really going there. 😉

  37. One thing Trump does talk about quite a bit is infrastructure. Our national infrastructure needs LOTS of work, and it would put people to work, be it at better jobs than they now have or some job rather than no job.
    I don’t know how serious he is about that, what he has in mind (or whether it makes any sense), or how able he would be to get the necessary cooperation from congress.

  38. Here’s funny headline (didn’t watch the Fox News video):

    Limbaugh blasts GOP establishment: You created Trump

    Yeah, and you had no part in that, Rush. WTF?

  39. It has become orthodoxy on the Right that the state should, nay, must be run like a business and that policy is too serious a business to leave it to politicians, in particular career politicians. Trump is the perfect caricature of that idea. Romney was already too much tainted by career politicianism (which btw I consider to be true to a significant degree, although for different reasons).

  40. Marty: a successful businessman with deep experience who understands how to fix the economy.
    The latter part of that may, or may not be true, but there is zero evidence for the proposition.

  41. Obama did get a stimulus bill passed and it did help matters.

    There is much disagreement just how helpful that bill was. It was, however, unambiguously expensive. Not to mention, beset with the occasional misstep.

  42. Hartmut – “If they award the nomination to anyone else despite Trump having a plurality, he will go independent and be it just out of spite.
    I could not even blame him.”
    I half expect that if Trump does win the GOP nomination that Bloomberg will step in with the same tactic. Seems to me that Forbes could also steal some thunder by declaring that he’d make a run at Trump if the GOP’s fractiousness allows Trump to take the nomination.

  43. a successful businessman with deep experience who understands how to fix the economy

    I would prefer a candidate who understands what the Chief Executive can and cannot do. Based on promises made by either party, there are no such critters out there. Excepting possibly Cruz. But I haven’t paid enough attention to his promises at this point.
    Cruz at least on occasion has drawn a line between what he would prefer, and what he could actually do. That’s what my memory says, anyway.

  44. slart, have no confidence Trump can accomplish anything he says, his is the most empty and gratuitous campaign pandering since, well, Obama. Same campaign. Meaningless slogan, promise everything, make empty but soaring speeches jumping from topic to topic and promise to make Washington “work”. Like a 2 min 30 sec song with two verses and 2 choruses with a 10 sec change. Or your standard 30 min sitcom. Plays in Peoria.

  45. how is it that Obama’s was an empty and gratuitous campaign if he’s “rammed his agenda down our throats” for 7 years ?
    either he overpromised or enacted his agenda.
    can’t be both.

  46. If they award the nomination to anyone else despite Trump having a plurality, he will go independent and be it just out of spite.
    There’s just one problem with this. There are several states (several big states) which have “sore loser” laws. If you want to get ojn the general election ballot as an independent, you have to sign up early, typically by June.
    Which means, decisions will have to be made — whether by Trump or by Bloomberg. It’s not impossible. But it does mean either one might be in a position of making that decision before the dust has settled.

  47. Slarti,
    Yes, Solyndra, where less than .1% of the money went, turned out to be a disaster when competing technologies had dramatic cost reductions. Private investment firms have lots of flops too. Talk to a VC firm about it sometime.
    As for the disagreement, yes there is some. But it’s not on very solid footing. Greg Mankiw, for example, offered an alternative stimulus, which suggests he does think they can work, and his criticism of the actual bill was taken down pretty well by Nate Silver.
    One highly dishonest criticism, which you may have seen is that the unemployment rate near the end of 2009 was higher than CBO predicted with no stimulus. Sounds damning, except that the CBO prediction was based on current unemployment numbers which, it turned out, were way too low.
    Here’s the thing. Under certain circumstances stimulus works. You can argue about measurements, but it works.

  48. These people are still struggling and Obama keeps talking about how great a job he has done fixing the economy. They just call bs.
    I think this is a fair point. But the GOP (and Trump)offer public policies that will, arguably, only make things worse.
    Second, its the wall. But more than the wall its the desire to have pride in “our” country. There are a plurality of the people in this country who believe this is not going to be our country very much longer. It will be their country.
    Other than the previous waves of immigrants for which it took more than a generation to suddenly be seen as “white”? And are blacks included in the “their”?
    You can cry, “This is not racism”, until the cows come home, but it is racism.

  49. When GNP is below potential, government spending will push output toward that potential (all other things being equal).
    This is pretty damnned basic stuff that has been known (and yes, empirically so) since the late 1940’s.

  50. can’t be both.
    Unless he ran on empty promises and then rammed his secret agenda (i.e., less than promised) down everybody’s throat.
    (play “Twilight Zone” theme song here)

  51. wj, I am aware of that. But it would be enough of a spanner in the works to spoil the GOP game, which would be Trump’s reason to do it. I believe Trump did not believe that he would get even this far when he started his campaign. He would have nothing to lose if it came to that situation but he would live in glorious infamy as the guy who brought the house down. Hero Or Herostratus, he will embrace both roles with glee.

  53. “Their country. Because for generations immigrants came here legally because the most important thing for them was to become Americans.”
    For generations immigrants came here legally because you could get in legally by just showing up disease-free. I know for certain that my grandfather would have immigrated illegally if he had not been able to come legally.

  54. There are several states (several big states) which have “sore loser” laws. If you want to get ojn the general election ballot as an independent, you have to sign up early, typically by June.
    This is the kind of problem that is amenable to solution by throwing massive amounts of money and lawyers at them.
    The “real” deadline is when ballots have to be printed, probably mid-October.

  57. I have nothing at all of importance to contribute to this discussion, so I’m just going to leave a link to what is simultaneously the most hilarious and disturbing ebook I have seen in my entire life. Hilarious because, come on, look at the title.
    Disturbing because someone, somewhere is already envisioning the future of our nation in such less-than-flattering circumstances. And I don’t really want to be on the receiving end. Of any of it.
    http://www.amazon.com/President-Domald-Tromp-Pounds-Americas-ebook/dp/B015BH04HA
    All apologies, but I just couldn’t help myself this time. 🙂

  58. I love Taibbi.
    That is a great article, as in between the lovely phrases (“satanic quail hunter”…), it actually explains the Trump phenomenon in detail – something the rest of the media have singularly failed to do; possibly because that would require a long hard look in the mirror.
    Meanwhile, Rubio exposed a crack in the armour:
    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/02/marco_rubio_finally_learned_how_to_attack_donald_trump.html

  60. There are good lines in that Taibbi article. Including “Rubio gets exposed in the debate as a talking haircut, a political Speak n’ Spell” and “The two men, of course, are polar opposites in just about every way – Sanders worries about the poor, while Trump would eat a child in a lifeboat”
    Although sometimes he’s trying too hard:
    “Rubio’s face-plant brilliantly reprised Sir Ian Holm’s performance in Alien, as a malfunctioning, disembodied robot head stammering, “I admire its purity,” while covered in milky android goo.”

  61. Rubio, on Trump, from Nigel’s cite:

    Here’s the guy that inherited $200 million. If he hadn’t inherited $200 million, you know where Donald Trump would be right now? Selling watches in Manhattan

    LOL.
    That’s the way to play it, Marco.
    It may seem childish and demeaning to address Trump on his own level, but as far as national US politics goes, ‘childish and demeaning’ is a horse that left the barn long, long ago.
    You don’t get to pick your opponents. If you’re gonna play, play to win. I hope Rubio keeps it up.

  62. Oddly, I found Taibbi’s article to be, in part, extolling the virtues of Trump – correctly, even. Trump has exposed the emperor’s lack of clothes, even if he, himself, has none.
    I can’t even fathom how a Trump presidency would play out if it came to pass. It so defies logic that I can’t process it. It’s like the irresistible force and the immovable object. They can’t coexist in the same logical universe. Donald Trump and the President of the United States cannot logically be the same person in my mind.
    Why couldn’t it have been someone who wasn’t an ego-maniacal a$$hole to blow up the system (seemingly, at least)? Why couldn’t it have been someone who presented a viable alternative? Is this country such that only the likes of Donald Trump could do it, or is it just a matter of dumb luck that it was him?

  63. Yes, I’m afraid that this country (or at least the GOP) has become such. It’s a matter of dumb luck that it was Trump. But it had to be someone like Trump.
    And, at the same time, to beat Trump it will be necessary to, among other things, beat him at his own game. Apparently Rubio had a go at it last night, at least the ridicule part. The questions now are: can Rubio keep it up? And will the rest of the field wade in as well? (I admit that I’m having trouble imagining Cruz managing to do so effectively.)
    It appears that, among the Democrats, Sanders has found a somewhat less noxious way to make some of the same points. And with some success — from a horrible starting point. Clinton, who has some experience with political rough and tumble, seems to have found the beginnings of a solution, albeit a traditional one: she’s adopting parts of Sanders’ platform.

  64. Maybe a Trump presidency plays out like Arnold in California.
    Maybe he wins and the Democrats win back the Senate and the GOP keeps the House? That would be quite something.

  65. Except Arnold was never as noxious as Trump. And he was willing to work with others, also unlike Trump. That is, he was actually interested in governing; not just in posturing.
    I’d like to believe that a President Trump would turn out that way. I’d like to, but I just can’t.

  66. When I’m feeling less hysterical, I actually see a Trump presidency as playing out something like Paul LePage’s governorship in Maine. I do suspect Trump may be smarter than LePage, in a low animal cunning way. But he’s got the same fondness for conspiracy theories (LePage, I think, actually believes them; for Trump they may just be convenient bullshit) and willingness to coddle seriously scary characters, and neither has any concept of what it would be like to govern in a constitutional system with checks and balances.

  67. I tend to think Josh Marshall is mostly right here (although I usually think that about what Josh says). But we will see on Tuesday, as it seems to me Trump wins every state other than Texas.
    And it might actually be better for the GOP “establishment” if Trumps won Texas too as that might make Cruz drop out, although I get the feeling Cruz is going to stay in until the bitter end – he’s that kind of guy.

  68. This from John Cole is pretty funny:
    I have a secret fantasy that at the final debate, when prompted for his closing remarks, Donald Trump will look directly into the camera and blurt out “The Aristocrats,” drop the mic, and walk off stage.

  69. Oddly, I found Taibbi’s article to be, in part, extolling the virtues of Trump – correctly, even. Trump has exposed the emperor’s lack of clothes, even if he, himself, has none…
    That’s why I like Taibbi – he doesn’t let his prejudices entirely cloud his analysis.
    Trump would in all likelihood be an awful president, and like ‘the donist’ (I’m sorry, but can’t help reading hairshirthedonist this way…), I find it hard to imagine how a Trump presidency might pan out.
    His capacity for analysis seems minimal, but he does seem to have a unerring instinct for sensing his opponents’ weaknesses.
    And the US political process is something of a conspiracy against the bulk of the electorate.

  75. It … I don’t know …. cracks me up? … that Cruz, Rubio and company are now going after Trump’s tax returns.
    What are they going to do … sic the abolished IRA on him?
    How will his Tea Party supporters react when the Tea Party PAC supporters of Cruz, Rubio, and company hire Lois Lerner to do a private audit of Trump’s tax affairs.
    There is nothing funny or ironic about any of this or any of these filth.
    The Republican Party is cold-blooded murder syndicate, and they and their supporters seek the murder of Millions of Americans with unmitigated, cackling glee.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_0xAbFAIbM
    They are merely deciding how flamboyant they want their lead f*cking killer to be.

  78. The fat man sees a kindred hard-ass in Trump.
    Do the deal, or we’ll take your bridge out.
    They’ve tapped into the bullying, grab-their-balls essence of the vermin Republican Party base.
    They understand only one language.

  79. Are the Trump-haters and IRS-haters here and elsewhere going to call off the IRS and it’s all-of-a-sudden convenient cosiness with the Republican Party’s desire to see Trump’s tax affairs investigated and made public:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-12-years-audits-very-141036901.html
    Will the Christian conservative base unite in full solidarity with their newly crowned Son of God, Donald J. Trump, to fight the predatory Republican Party/IRS abuse of his God-given freedom to cheat on his taxes.

  81. I hope Rubio keeps it up.
    I don’t think Rubio is any better than Trump when it comes to policy, cf. Iran / Israel – on these and other matters he is even more dangerous – it scares me to say this … because Clinton is almost as crazy … omfg

  84. Maybe they’ll waterboard Tim Cook at Guantanamo:
    Fascist, big government, stinking Republican filth.
    If Obama comes out in favor of the FBI hacking the I-phone, will they change their tune, or double down and have Tim Cook arrested?

  86. I hope to God this happens:
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-libel-sue-media
    It will be the conservative Republican money shot in their long-held wet dream to cripple once and for all the nattering nabobs in the free press.
    And after Trump, or whatever murderer Republicans elect in the Fall and they stack the Supreme Court with their vermin, challenges to the new First Amendment ruination will be turned back and denied.
    They’ll sue me too. And Marty.
    The new Fairness to Vermin Doctrine.

  87. I don’t think Rubio is any better than Trump when it comes to policy
    It’s hard to say, because I have no freaking idea what Trump’s policies are.
    Other than “it’ll be terrific!”.

  88. Other than “it’ll be terrific!”.
    Those are pretty much Rubio’s policies also. In fact, we all pretty much believe our candidates will tend to make things “more terrific”. That’s why we go through this agony.
    God bless democracy.

  89. He has promised to ‘abolish’ the IRS, has he not?
    addendum:
    and don’t overlook that stuff about the gold standard. Realistic? You can’t be serious. Anybody who advocates going back to the gold standard is simply an economic crank. Period.

  90. But Nevada is very unusual. Its population’s level of anti-(Federal) government sentiment is exceptionally high.
    You want to provide some data for that? Arizona and Utah are the states passing nullification laws these days. Rural secession movements (from the urban areas, not from the US) are happening in California and Colorado. Every western state has its Cliven Bundy, some rancher that thinks they can flout the BLM and FS rules. In most places, they aren’t allowed to go on as long as Cliven was. But they’re small and shrinking minorities — by the Census Bureau’s current measure, Nevada is the third least-rural state in the country. (Side note: four of the ten least-rural states by percent of population are western states; five if you include Hawaii.)
    Nevada has a better reason than most to distrust the federal government, which keeps trying to cram Yucca Mountain down the state’s throat.

  91. Anybody who advocates going back to the gold standard is simply an economic crank. Period.
    But bobbyp, we have rampant inflation. We need to tie the dollar to a fixed, stable measure of value, like gold. That’s what Ted said anyway.
    That’s after (or before) he decided that everyone would be completely honest and accurate on their taxes, including his VAT, so all that’s needed is a few clerks to collect the checks and take them to the bank.

  93. I think I ran out of popcorn reading this
    The (R)’s can try to come up with a grand strategy to ‘stop Trump’, or neutralize him should he prevail, but there is a one underlying problem that they don’t seem to be able to address.
    A lot of people like Trump. He gets a lot of votes because a lot of people like him. They like his persona, and they like what he says, and they don’t particularly care if he’s consistent or even all that conservative.
    They like him. They prefer him to Cruz, or Rubio, or Kasich, or whoever else is left standing at this point. Which is why they vote for him, which is why he’s winning.

  94. A lot of people also hate Trump, for the same reasons. Some of them, but only some, are GOP primary voters. Many, possibly most, of them will only get a chance to manifest that hatred in November if He, Trump wins the primaries.
    It’s possible that a lot of people who are not GOP primary voters have not got around to hating Trump because a bemused contempt is all they have needed to feel so far.
    It’s also possible, of course, that the “average” American is clueless enough to elect a carnival barker for president, in which case the “average” American will deserve the consequences.
    –TP

  95. I would be a lot more optimistic about the future of the USA if Arnold Schwarzenegger had not managed to emerge the winner on a 1000+? candidate recall-replacement ballot for Gov of CA.

  96. You want to provide some data for that? Arizona and Utah are the states passing nullification laws these days. Rural secession movements (from the urban areas, not from the US) are happening in California and Colorado.
    I didn’t say that Nevada was uniquely anti-Federal government. Just that it was far more so than most states. Including, implicitly, the other early primary/caucus states.

  97. Snarki, you might want to look at the other (~135) candidates that were on offer in that election. (Of whom, FYI, only 4 got above 1% of the votes.) Arnold was way too moderate to win a Republican primary. But when all he needed was a plurality of the entire voting population….
    The only other significant Republican candidate was Tom McClintock. Who most recently is one of the Congressmen most often voting against even the Republican leadership of the House as insufficiently rabid in their conservatism. In short, way too far right to have a shot at winning a California election . . . even where all he needed was a plurality.
    Beyond that, given the recall was happening, it would have been a tough sell to elect another Democrat. So given a Republican who was not a visible nut case, that’s where people went.
    And it should be noted that Arnold did a competent job as governor. Competent enough that he got reelected, even as a Republican in California. And competent enough that, if he were eligible and running this year, he’d be my first choice amongst the Republican candidates for President.

  98. It’s also possible, of course, that the “average” American is clueless enough to elect a carnival barker for president, in which case the “average” American will deserve the consequences.
    Well, they have now elected one two elections in a row, can’t be surprised it might be three.

  99. Well, they have now elected one two elections in a row, can’t be surprised it might be three.
    Half of all Americans are dumber than average. Some fraction are mere provocateurs. I don’t know which group Marty wants into with the above comment.
    –TP

  100. The methodology Trump I’d using is no different than Obama’s. Everyone else is stupid, I am the only one that I independent, massive social media presence. If you don’t think Trump is following the Obama playbook, well you made the categories.

  101. I didn’t say that Nevada was uniquely anti-Federal government. Just that it was far more so than most states.
    Where “most” means eastern? Seriously, from the Great Plains west — call it west of 100 °W longitude — Nevada isn’t even an outlier. I spent three years on the staff for a western state legislature, talking to staffers in other western states regularly, and problems with the federal government are an annual thing. I get into this argument regularly, but assert that among the political class in the West, there is an enormous latent animosity towards the federal government.

  102. The methodology Trump I’d using is no different than Obama’s.
    get out of that bubble. it’s making you sound like a lunatic.

  103. Where “most” means eastern? Seriously, from the Great Plains west — call it west of 100 °W longitude — Nevada isn’t even an outlier.
    Certainly there is a lot of animosity in rural California, Oregon (and probably, although I am less familiar with it, Washington). But those voters are a fraction, perhaps even a tiny fraction, of the total voters in those states.
    Even if you add in the conservative/libertarian parts of southern California, they still aren’t enough to even be able to elect a significant part of the state legislature.
    Yes, you see something similar in the mountain states (Idaho, Montana, etc.). But once you get into the Plains States, it’s a different story. The folks there dislike some Federal programs. But they like, even demand, some others (c.f. crop subsidies) — although, admittedly, they may manage to ignore the fact that those are Federal programs.
    Note that most of the Midwest is east of the 100th meridian. But hardly “Eastern” in any meaningful sense. Note also that a substantial majority of the US population lives either east of the 100th meridian or along the Pacific coast — a substantial majority of the states also fall into that category. Is Idaho as much as an outlier as Nevada? Quite possibly. But that doesn’t change Nevada’s position; especially among the early primary states.

  104. It is actually the most amazing thing to me that everyone denies the direct parallel between the campaign strategies and tactics. It is like no one can remember how vague Obama was, or how he just repeated hope and change on the stump every day, or how he edged around the issues until he found the one that played and then said he was for that all the time.
    Add in the flood of social media and free coverage because he was a celebrity and it is all the same.
    Oh, and the complete disdain for his opponents.
    I remember calling him a huckster and his campaign a revival meeting. It is not me living in the bubble. But it helps that I didn’t like either of them so I don’t really have a partisan view of the comparison. SSDD.

  105. Yes, Marty, tell us all about how Obama preached hate and fear and how his followers bullied any opponents who dared show up at his rallies, and all the blatant lies he told about his past, and about everyone else . . .
    Perhaps you remember what no one else does?
    Otherwise, STFU.

  106. I love that. thanks dr. ngo. Some of the above. Yes Obama supporters shouted down any protest at his rallies, but you didn’t like those people so it was ok. Yes he told blatant lies about his past. And hate and fear of the Republicans (read Bush) was a staple.

  107. or how he just repeated hope and change on the stump every day, or how he edged around the issues until he found the one that played and then said he was for that all the time
    seriously, this is nonsensical.
    I don’t really have a partisan view of the comparison
    bullshit. you sound like a wingnut radio jock, trying to pimp the GOP brand to your ignorant listeners.

  108. Yes he told blatant lies about his past.
    Just out of curiosity, what blatant lies did Obama tell about his past?
    Seriously. I don’t remember any, but I wasn’t paying attention during the Democratic primaries. And after McCain revealed a massive lack of judgement with Palin, there wasn’t really much choice.

  109. And hate and fear of the Republicans (read Bush) was a staple.
    Unlike how hate and fear of the Democrats (read Obama, or don’t – it’s pretty damned general) has been a staple on your side of the aisle has been since 2008 at the absolute latest?
    If it’s normal political behavior – which for Republicans it certainly is – then it’s hardly evidence that two pols are using the same methodology.
    (This takes the comparison at face value, which is frankly silly. Seriously, I’d love to hear a direct, point-by-point comparison of the two campaigns instead of vague, sweeping generalized invocations of how they’re “the same” (like the above non-specific specification) while edging around identifying the actual details that would make them the same…)

  110. *hardly evidence that two pols are using a distinct methodology, and not significant evidence they’re using the same one

  112. Yes Obama supporters shouted down any protest at his rallies

    As Bush dashed through a day that included a church service, a congressional lunch, an inaugural parade and 10 evening events, there were reminders of the country’s political divide. A pair of protesters unfurled an antiwar banner during the swearing-in ceremony, only to be removed by police and shouted down by Bush supporters chanting “USA! USA!”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23519-2005Jan20.html

    The federal government has agreed to pay $80,000 to a Texas couple arrested for wearing anti-President Bush T-shirts at a 2004 event with the president in Charleston.
    0817 060817 06Jeff and Nicole Rank went to Bush’s Fourth of July speech at the state Capitol wearing homemade T-shirts with a red circle with a bar through it over the word “Bush.”
    On the back, hers read “Love America, Hate Bush” and his read “Regime Change Starts At Home.”
    When the couple refused to cover up their shirts, they were arrested and charged with trespassing. Those charges were later dropped by the city of Charleston, and city officials later apologized.

    http://www.commondreams.org/news/2007/08/17/couple-arrested-bush-rally-settles-lawsuit-80000
    also:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooks_Brothers_riot

  113. and, please provide links to show that Obama would single out the press at rallies and say he hated them, or where he said he wanted to personally punch a protester in the face.

  114. I, for one, am hoping Marty can provide an audio clip of Biden, as Pres. of the Senate, telling McConnell to “GFYS”.
    Not least, so I can listen to it over and over.

  117. …, Nevada is the third least-rural state in the country. (Side note: four of the ten least-rural states by percent of population are western states;…
    It’s difficult to have a rural population when the federal government owns most of the real estate.

  118. It’s difficult to have a rural population when the federal government owns most of the real estate.
    It’s difficult to have a rural population when nobody wants to live there, CharlesWT.

  119. “The methodology Trump I’d using is no different than Obama’s.”
    As the Donald might orate, while grabbing his balls, “Methodology This!”

  120. Skimmed over the thread just to say. I don’t give a damn which freak gets the Republican nomination and the prospect of voting for Clinton depresses the hell out of me, but will do it if necessary.
    I hate American politics.

  122. I’m way late to the party, but in response to Hartmut, way up at the top of the thread:
    “If they award the nomination to anyone else despite Trump having a plurality, he will go independent and be it just out of spite.”
    The cool thing is, he really can’t. The convention is past most of the independent filing deadlines. He can campaign as a write-in, but that’s going to be pretty feckless. And if there’s anything that Trump insists that he be full of, it’s feck.

  123. Isn’t the convention in July (18-21th) while most deadlines are in August? It would take some effort but should be possible to get onto enough state ballots to act as a spoiler. And at that stage spoling will be all that Trump has in mind. And even a limited run would have an effect on his supporters whther he is on the local ballot or not.
    To be very nasty, I can see the GOP drawing profit from Trump becoming what Nader is seen as (=Gore’s spoiler). They will be able to blame their defeat on Trump (even if the Dem wins with a wider margin) not on their hateful and incompetent actions. “Without him, we would have won. Therefore our behaviour against Obama was successful. Therefore we can, should and will do the same to his successor.”.

  125. Nigel, you have to realize that behaving like 3rd graders is a step forward. For most of the last 7 years, the Republicans in Congress have been behaving like 2-year-olds. (That’s the age where kids just scream “No! No! No!” over pretty much anything.)
    So maybe the campaign represents progress…?

  126. That Josh Marshall analysis is really accurate IMHO. A lot of Marty’s comments here demonstrate the “nonsense debt” problem: Marty doesn’t seem able to tell when his statements (e.g. that Obama caused Scalia’s death, or that Obama ‘wants to be king’) are outside the bounds of reason.
    Marshall uses the metaphor of ‘programming debt’:

    If we do a project in a rough and ready way, which is often what we can manage under the time and budget constraints we face, we will build up a “debt” we’ll eventually have to pay back. Basically, if we do it fast, we’ll later have to go back and rework or even replace the code to make it robust enough for the long haul, interoperate with other code that runs our site or simply be truly functional as opposed just barely doing what we need it to. There’s no right or wrong answer; it’s simply a management challenge to know when to lean one way or the other. But if you build up too much of this debt the problem can start to grow not in a linear but an exponential fashion, until the system begins to cave in on itself with internal decay, breakdowns of interoperability and emergent failures which grow from both.

    Boy howdy, does that metaphor resonate — I’m sure most of us have been involved with projects (programming or otherwise) where this happens, where ‘just get it working, we’ll fix that later’ goes on to the point where you can no longer fix *anything*, as the project crashes around your ears.
    In programming or other projects, you deal with this kind of debt spiral by getting the money to start fresh behind the scenes, test it carefully, then roll it out the new version before the old has completely collapsed. You can also usually ensure that the new version looks prettier, as well as working better, so everyone can (eventually) accept the changes.
    For the GOP, though, I don’t see the possibility of anything like a site redesign. In the first place, too many of the party leaders (and major donors) are operating on “resentment, perceived persecution, apocalyptic thinking and generic nonsense”, and enjoying it. In the second place, there’s a whole media universe that feeds and reinforces those tendencies.
    How can the GOP — or the rest of us — get 27% of the country — and maybe half of all Republican voters — out of the habit of nonsense, paranoia, resentment, and outrage?

  127. How can the GOP — or the rest of us — get 27% of the country — and maybe half of all Republican voters — out of the habit of nonsense, paranoia, resentment, and outrage?
    It pains me, on principle, to say it. But I suspect that the only way to do this is to have those Republican voters drop out of the electorate in disgust.
    They’ll still be paranoid, resentful, and outraged. That is, they won’t get out of the habit. But they won’t be influencing where the GOP is going.
    I’m far less certain how to make that happen. (Although when we no longer have either a man with a permanent suntan, or a woman, in the Oval Office, that will help.) Perhaps it simply cannot be encouraged from outside, save by repeatedly voting down their preferred candidates, so they decide that they just can’t win and therefore why bother to try.

  129. pains me to say it, because i don’t really dislike either of them, but i kindof wish the Dems had someone else besides Clinton and Sanders in the lead this year. Trump is fracturing the GOP and potentially putting a lot of voters in play that otherwise would be solid Republicans. but the Dems have a Clinton and a guy who calls himself a “socialist”. and that probably makes drives away a lot of those anti-Trump Republicans.
    but if the election was Trump v… i dunno, Biden? the Dems would probably clean up.

  130. Cleek, why not go with O’Malley? He, at least, was out there making an effort. As opposed of Biden, who made it clear that he wasn’t interested.

  131. sure, O’Malley might’ve worked.
    it’s just that somehow the Dems ended up with two candidates who are pretty polarizing, outside the Dem base, at the very time they could’ve scooped up a lot of anyone-but-Trump Republicans.
    i think they’ll do OK anyway. but it seems like a bit of a missed opportunity.

  132. wj,
    A “paranoid, resentful, and outraged” minority (especially one which overlaps considerably with the armed segment of the population) may not “drop out of the electorate in disgust”. History suggests that fanatics often go out with a bang and not a whimper.
    DocSci,
    Wow, does Josh’s metaphor resonate with me. Every project I ever worked on conformed to it, and I include home ownership in the list. It strikes me that the project of framing a Constitution for the US did/does also.
    What can “the rest of us” do about the 27%, you ask? We have no choice but to engage with them. Not with their political and cultural leaders/mouthpieces but with them, personally. It’s an uncomfortable proposition, because here in America we like to pretend that “politics” is separate from “real life”. Very few of us talk politics with our boss, our dentist, our neighbor, our brother-in-law — unless we’re pretty sure we agree in the first place. So the “programming debt” keeps building up.
    –TP

  133. The biggest problem that I have “engaging with them” is the number (at least among the ones I know) who are enthusiastic conspiracy theory types.
    In my experience, there is simply no way to reach someone who is convinced that everything is a conspiracy. Especially when absense of anything resembling evidence is taken as simply proof of how clever the conspirators are in hiding their tracks.
    If someone has found a way to get through that kind of closed loop, I would love to hear about it. I’ve got a couple of close friends who I simply cannot talk to about politics (or lots of other topics).

  137. Slightly off topic…
    Would it be constitutionally possible for Obama to nominate himself to the Supreme Court ?
    (In order to provide some Senate vacancies as Republican heads actually explode…)
    It would seem only fair, as the Republicans don’t appear to feel that he should be allowed to act as president for the remainder of his term.

  139. Would it be constitutionally possible for Obama to nominate himself to the Supreme Court ?
    there are no requirements specified for the job. and i don’t know of anything about the job of President that would forbid it.
    make it so, Obama!

  140. You guys are looking at this all wrong!
    First, Obama deserves a little break after his current job. Certainly it has been rather stressful trying to work with(!) the current Congress.
    More importantly, it’s not really right to go from heading one branch of government to merely being an Associate Justice on the Supreme Court. Better to wait for the Chief Justice slot to open up.**
    Long live William Howard Taft!
    ** For those longing for exploding heads, that would also be likely to cause more and larger explosions.

  141. Hey, Michelle Obama is a lawyer too.
    It would not surprise me if Ted Olsen is being vetted.
    But a law degree is not a requirement for the job anyway, AFAIK. So I fantasize about a scientist on the Court. Not gonna happen, of course: scientists tend to be insufficiently pious.
    –TP

  143. I’m not sure how to define polarizing better than high faces and high unfaves. She has been polarizing for decades.
    However, once she gets to the general election campaign I expect her unfavorables to go down. Most surely if she gets to run against Trump. Her new ads are really working on that already.

  144. Polarization is GOOD. At least as good as greed, anyhow.
    The whole point of elections (in a democracy; in theory) is to count up how many people are on each side of the fence. The Broderistic worship of fence-straddlers is political correctness run amok. Tut-tutting at politicians who tend to pull or push fence-sitters off their perch is misguided civility.
    These things are also anti-democratic in an important sense. They amount to wanting elections to be more or less meaningless civic rituals, rather than the only method short of violence to decide, not which side is right, but which side would prevail in a knife fight.
    –TP

  145. “And now he killed a Supreme.”
    ok, I remember that one now. somehow I seem to have blocked it from my mind. thanks janie.
    I gotta say, I think you’re just trolling us all at this point Marty.

  146. Guys, Clinton is not as polarizing as you think
    in the set of anti-Trump Republicans, she’s pretty polarizing. “Clinton” is probably even more of a turn off for Republicans than “Bush” is for Dems.

  147. I don’t know how polarizing Clinton is or is not.
    What I do think is that anyone who wants to vote for someone who is essentially a thoroughly experienced, intelligent, centrist should have no trouble pulling the lever for her.
    Not close.

  151. Well, the Supreme comment was tingu in cheek, a little trolling. Plus, in this thread I didn’t go to Obama said anything akin to what Trump said until after the reaction to what I think is pretty clearly common campaign strategies.
    Nonetheless. Trump can’t get my vote. I would even have to consider voting for the Democratic candidate at this point, a step beyond withholding my vote.
    There is no doubt after today that his racist remarks in the past were not just hyperbole. The inability to simply decry the Klan removes any doubt about his underlying sentiment.
    If he gets the nomination, I will not be a Republican.

  152. If he gets the nomination, I will not be a Republican.
    If Trump (or, more accurately, the number of Trump supporters) is managing to drive Marty out of the Republican Party, that really says something. And I find myself in agreement — a Trump nomination makes it pretty much impossible for anyone with two brain cells to rub together from voting Republican. At least at the top of the ticket.

  154. “If he gets the nomination, I will not be a Republican.”
    Welp!
    Where does a guy go to get his gaskets unblown?
    😉
    “The inability to simply decry the Klan removes any doubt about his underlying sentiment.”
    The sentimentality of his sizable posse, as in the folks who have probably secured him the Republican nomination, is the disability that we need to be afraid of.
    Except for the streets, where do they go next?
    wj writes:
    “At least at the top of the ticket.”
    You mean, we can’t bring ourselves to vote for Trump, but we may be able to swing a vote down ticket for an actual Klansman?
    As Doctor Science alluded to above, or somewhere recently, it’s the down ticket racist, a’hole conservative revolutionaries who require gelding, and worse.
    The real danger to America, in my completely non-humble opinion, is the hold Norquistian/Palinist/Atwatery murderers have on local and statehouse, gerrymandered politics.
    Where do we think the “Freedom Caucus” came from?

  155. Remember, America’s Faulknerian Original Sin is no longer slavery, according to the current prevailing Zeitgeist raging among the conservative base, but rather the political correctness that criticizes and ridicules the down home Klan “values”.

  156. Bouncing off of CharlesWT’s Chris Rock reference:
    http://thinkprogress.org/culture/2016/02/28/3754631/chris-rocks-epic-monologue-at-the-oscars-you-are-damn-right-hollywood-is-racist/
    Rock, a national treasure:
    But here’s the real question. The real question everybody wants to know, everybody wants to know, in the world, is Hollywood racist? Is Hollywood racist? You know, that’s — that’s a — you know, you got to go at that at the right way. Is it burning cross racist? No. Is it fetch me some lemonade racist? No, no. It’s a different type of racist.
    Now, I remember one night I was at a fundraiser for President Obama, a lot of you were there, and, you know, it’s me and all of Hollywood. And all the, you know, it’s all of us there and there’s about four black people there, me, let’s see, Quincy Jones, Russell Simmons, Questlove, you know, the usual suspects, right? And every black actor that wasn’t working. Needless to say, Kevin Hart was not there, okay? So, at some point, you get to take a picture with the President.
    And as they’re setting up the picture, you get a little moment with the president, I’m like, “Mr. President, you see all these writers and producers and actors? They don’t hire black people. And they’re the nicest white people on earth. They’re liberals.” CHEESE.
    That’s right. Is Hollywood racist? You’re damn right Hollywood’s racist. But it isn’t the racist you’ve grown accustomed to. Hollywood is sorority racist. It’s like — “We like you, Rhonda, but you’re not a Kappa.” That’s how Hollywood is.”

  157. “Obama ‘wants to be king’)”
    First.Obama would be king and is operating as much like a king today as he can. And before the rebuke, in more than one interview he has stated how things would be better if the smart folks could get together and do what was needed without the interference of the people. Which leads to
    Second, the way you dream with 28% of the electorate is to quit calling them names and telling them they are operating on “resentment, perceived persecution, apocalyptic thinking and generic nonsense” and they should just get over it.
    They are no more apocalyptic than the pearl clutchers going on about Citizen United. Except for the most part they are actually disenfranchised. Their persecution is not “perceived” its experienced every day. And every time some 1%er talks about what’s wrong with them it isn’t paranoia anymore.
    So, you can call it what you want but you don’t get rid of it by pretending something is wrong with them.

  158. Obama would be king and is operating as much like a king today
    dude. get real.
    in more than one interview he has stated how things would be better if the smart folks could get together
    cite?

  159. Actually cleek I tried to find the interview, before I put that part in. I haven’t found it yet, but I actually saw the interview on tv toward the end of his first term.
    And, again, the things he has done in the past 18 months, and more, are assumptions of executive privilege completely unparalleled in my life time.

  162. “and quit telling them they are operating on resentment, perceived persecution, apocalyptic thinking and generic nonsense”
    I think THEY told Trump, Cruz, the Tea Party, and assorted malingering grifters since the Gingrich days that very thing, who have been telling the rest of us ad nauseum at high decibel volumes, and we’re just repeating what we’ve been told but, oddly enough, the originators of the complaints don’t like to be recognized as the original complainants.
    You want to see anger, wait until the 28% grows to 88% after Paul Ryan destroys Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and repeals Obamacare, the latter of which a small portion of the 28% have sneaked onto like men overboard dressed as women clinging to the Titanic’s lifeboats, through no fault of their own.

  163. I do love that the GOP’s candidates “pledge” to support the eventual nominee – originally designed to somehow force Trump into not running a third party campaign should he lose – is now coming back to bite them since Trump’s winning.
    Rubio trying to start a #NeverTrump campaign on Twitter – you signed the pledge Rubes! Eat it, otherwise you take your word just as seriously as you’ve taken your job as United States Senator from Florida.

  164. I lifted this tweet from cleek’s place regarding the shock, I say the SHOCK, the Republican establishment finds itself in over the Trump/Cruz ascendancy.
    “Republican elites: I can’t believe this dog whistle attracted all these dogs!”
    “And, again, the things he has done in the past 18 months, and more, are assumptions of executive privilege completely unparalleled in my life time.”
    Could be. Can you think of the completely unparalleled behavior and machinations over the past 40 years by guess who that might have led us to this pass?

  165. And, again, the things he has done in the past 18 months, and more, are assumptions of executive privilege completely unparalleled in my life time.
    two words: unitary executive
    four more words: fourth branch of government
    other points of interest might include Iran/Contra, and generally participating in wars explicitly prohibited by law, and basically the entire Presidency of Richard Nixon.
    no doubt there are many examples from the career of Lyndon Baines Johnson that could also be cited.
    seriously, Marty, where you been?

  166. And how is it that Rubio thinks labeling Trump a “con man” is at all helpful? Doesn’t that imply Trump’s current supporters are a bunch of idiotic, easily fooled rubes? And they are thus going to wake up now that you’ve told them and support you?
    What a tool.

  167. What a tool.
    FWIW, here is my take on it.
    A lot of Trump’s appeal is his being, basically, a bully and getting away with it. To the degree that Rubio (or anyone) can poke a hole in that, it undermines him as a candidate.
    Rubio’s new approach is childish, but IMO it’s likely to be more effective than trying to deal with Trump like an adult.
    We’ll see what happens. I wish him luck with it.

  168. All of that said, Trump at least, in is oafish, know-nothing, demagogic manner, is tapping into bipartisan rage about the ravaging of the middle class (and lower too, but ravaging is nothing new to them) by “free trade” agreements, plunging union power, and the overall attack on decent wages and benefits by the corporate elite in this country.
    HE at least mouths his opposition to SS and Medicare.
    Not that he means any of it, because he doesn’t know what he thinks until didn’t he hears the roar of the greasepaint and smells the stench of the crowd.
    The Koch Brothers funded their hand-puppets, the Tea Party. Now a good part of the Tea Party had migrated to Trump.
    And that scares the crap out of the Koch Brothers, who hate Trump, so much that they have been on a charm offensive these last months.
    Like so many Uriah Heeps.
    There’s only so many times you can tell the frightened, persecuted, resentful, armed 28 percenters that it’s the blacks, Mexicans, Muslims, and the Chinese who are blowing up their American dream, when it’s the Koch Brothers and company who send out the lay-off notices, the demands to get rid of the minimum wage, decent wages, and decent benefits, and then spend hundreds of millions of dollars to elect candidates who crave hollowing out the safety net as well.
    The Koch Brothers don’t look Chinese, Muslim, or Mexican to me.
    Everyone else is going to catch up too.

  169. “has” migrated.
    And the word “didn’t” somehow sneaked into a sentence where it didn’t belong.
    It must have needed the work.

  170. Every political and financial comment thread is rife with Trump lovers who hate Rubio.
    They despise Clinton and Obama, but they’ll get back to them after they kill of Rubio, just as they killed off Bush.
    This election is like the running of the bulls at Pamplona.
    Rubio had better find a doorway to duck into soon

  171. Nixon resigned, Iran contra was a scandal and lbj did everything through the Congress. None even resembles doing what you want and publicly daring the Congress and public to do something about it. Even Bush got an authorization. Which no one supported regardless of the votes it got.

  172. Well, let’s hear what it is that Obama should resign over or what should be a scandal but isn’t. I mean, no one would dare create a scandal over something Obama did, right? Kid gloves is all he’s ever gotten from the opposition, just like I rode a giant, 7-tentacled wolf uterus with the head of Pee Wee Herman to work this morning.

  173. There’s rough logic in Trump’s refusal to disavow the white supremacist vote:
    http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/28/politics/donald-trump-jeff-sessions-endorsement/
    After trying to build casinos in Atlantic City with Mafia cooperation, Trump knows how swing a deal with the worst among em.
    Because it’s how business is done, which is the excuse of every malignancy this country has harbored since day ONE.
    He’s appealing to the basest natures of the base, just as every Republican since whenever had to kiss Strom Thurmond’s and Jesse Helm’s ring, which the latter’s grandpappies stole from a black slave or a Jew.

  174. no doubt there are many examples from the career of Lyndon Baines Johnson that could also be cited.
    All started with Truman and the Korean war.

  180. Rubio’s new approach is childish, but IMO it’s likely to be more effective than trying to deal with Trump like an adult.
    I see what you’re saying, but that’s just it, it is childish, or at least it is coming from him. It’s like he’s doing really bad standup – “Hair Force One” and “Spray tans”, he needs better writers (he should call the Count). Even the selling watches in Manhattan line seemed flat to me, although I’ve only read transcripts so perhaps it works better verbally/visually. It really does sound like (to me) he’s out there shouting “I’m rubber and you’re glue, whatever you say bounces off me and sticks to you!”
    But he’s playing a losing game, ISTM. If the KKK/David Duke horribleness doesn’t kill off Trump’s path to the nomination, then I don’t think anything will. Perhaps the one candidate who was a big enough d1ck to do it (Cruz is too much of a weasel) was Chris Christie and…..
    I guess we will find out tomorrow.

  181. “Nixon resigned
    is that all that happened? just one day out of the blue he resigned?”
    No, he started the Commie EPA too at the behest of Alger Hiss. Which is the real reason he resigned one day out of the blue.
    Also, torpedoed the Gold Standard.
    He’d a been primaried out of his SENATE seat in the 1950s if Ted Cruz had been around (he was, as a slight stirring in God’s loins) and we coulda made this country grate (on everyone’s nerves) a long time ago and avoided all of these elderly and poor living for so long without going totally bankrupt like they deserve.

  182. Before I forget about Mr. Rock, this was good from his opening as well:
    The annual in memoriam section “is just going to be black people shot by the cops on the way to the movies.”

  184. I predicted right here weeks ago that the Republican candidates would soon begin tweeting dic pics at each other and us, because that’s all they’ve got, other than their AK-47s.
    Rubio, on Trump:
    “He’s like 6’2” which is why I don’t understand why his hands are the size of someone who is 5’2″. Have you seen his hands?” Rubio said during a rally in Roanoke, Virgina. “You know what they say about men with small hands? You can’t trust them. You can’t trust them.”
    Next thing, at the next debate, Trump is going to grab the callow punk and give him a rough noogie and make him cry. And then crack a penis envy joke.
    Besides, Rubio should remember that Fidel Castro (who Rubio would be nowhere in this country without, other than skipping his parking attendant job at Disney World in Orlando) infamously said: “Sometimes an exploding cigar is just a cigar.”

  185. Rubio’s gambit reminds of when various celebs would take on Don Rickles at Dean Martin’s roasts.
    Good luck with that.

  186. I guess marty has forgotten the push by Bush to sneak in the power of line item veto via executive order….and of course, we all know where in the Congressional Record where we can find the legislative authorization to conduct torture.

  187. You mean, we can’t bring ourselves to vote for Trump, but we may be able to swing a vote down ticket for an actual Klansman?
    Count, I think it depends on what part of the country you are in. Here (northern California) we are actually seeing some Republicans at the local level who are social conservatives in their personal lives (which, if you think about it, pretty well describes Obama) and fiscal conservatives — but on social issues pretty tolerant of others. Yeah, “tolerant conservatives”; what a concept!
    My sense is that the Republican Party in California went far right earlier than most other places (outside the South). It had severe negative electoral experiences as a result. So we are finally seeing moderate conservatives start to displace the radicals. It gives me hope for the rest of the country.

  188. “He’s like 6’2” which is why I don’t understand why his hands are the size of someone who is 5’2″. Have you seen his hands?” Rubio said during a rally in Roanoke, Virgina. “You know what they say about men with small hands? You can’t trust them. You can’t trust them.”
    WTF? There are dog whistles, speaking in code, and speaking in tongues, I think this is the last.

  189. Been busy for a few days.

    Taibbi masterpiece

    For people who haven’t been paying attention, such as a goodly chunk of the RS readership, that was probably quite good. He did cover the bases pretty thoroughly, while telling me little that I didn’t already know. Trump fans won’t pay it any attention; anyone not having a remote chance of voting for Trump will mostly love it.
    I don’t think he paid enough attention to Trump’s pro wrestling career, though.

    The methodology Trump [is] using is no different from Obama’s

    Let’s elect him right this second, then!

  191. A Trump spokeswoman is on my TV just now, valiantly bullshitting in defense of He, Trump w.r.t. to The Donald’s insipid, weak-ass, non-disavowal of David Duke and the KKK. Poor woman’s gotta make a living, I guess.
    A decent interviewer might well have asked her to explain why He, Trump has never used his considerable powers of contempt, insult, and bullying against the KKK — rather than immigrants, Muslims, Democrats, Republicans, and other unsavory characters. Oh, well: interviewers have to eat too, and what matters to their bosses is the “get”, not the substance.
    Is this a great country, or what?
    –TP

  193. I don’t think he paid enough attention to Trump’s pro wrestling career, though.
    Good point. I was unaware of that aspect of The Donald, but I am a cultural ignoramus.

  194. Are all of the Repub d*cks going to sign a pledge not to vote for Trump and then wreak vengeance on those who do?
    Will they sign a pledge to never do business and never send a single piece of legislation to a President Trump.
    Which bricks in all of the walls the Republican Party is dying to build don’t correspond with Trump’s plans?
    What part of the carpet will Republicans refuse to bomb that Trump will bomb, multiple times.
    Just the shag parts? But flying carpets get the crap bombed out of them?
    Trump is a perfect fit with that monstrosity.
    What’s the difference between governing by irrevocable pledges, punished by being primaried into oblivion if broken, and Trump’s coming F*ck You Presidency.
    Which blacks, Mexicans, women, gays, and liberals won’t Trump punish that the Republican Party wants punished?
    See, the Catastrophic Party is a little afraid because Trump won’t put anything in writing and he’s not taking the pigf*cker/ratf*cker moolah to get elected, so he might change his mind, which would be apostasy and we can’t have that.

  195. Pro wrestling.
    Too bad Andy Kaufmann isn’t alive to run.
    He’d come out of meetings in a neck brace with Republican Party big wig scum like Paul Ryan and the big donors and be running a close second to Trump, even in the South.
    He’d skip the middle men and women and hold rallies and caucuses with actual dogs, so they didn’t have to run so far when he sounded the whistles.

  199. Sticking it to the liberals:
    When I asked people at a rally here why they support Trump, the most common reason I heard caught me by surprise. Yes, some said they liked Trump on immigration and the border. Others mentioned his business experience. But the most common reason: He flouts “political correctness.”
    …
    Chatter in the line ranged from to envious admiration of Trump’s wealth (“I wanna see the inside of his plane!”) to jokes about a crane near the football field where the event would be held (“You know what that crane’s for, don’t you? Protestors!” “One at a time.”).
    Ha. ha.

  202. This is why protestors and the press should arrive at Trump and all other Republican rallies armed to the teeth.

  203. On Trump being a con man – how, exactly, is he conning people? Here is Rubes again:
    Rubio calling his campaign “the most extensive con job in American political history.”
    If anything, it’s Rubio who is running the con, he’s just aiming at different people. Cruz is all “I’m an asshole and I like it” and Trump is all “Blargh me strong!” whereas Rubio is trying to pass as some kind of moderate, even though he holds the same policy positions as Cruz which are overall, if anything, to the right of Trump’s in substance.
    This too:
    “Unfortunately today, there are a significant number of our fellow Americans in the Republican Party who have chosen, at least for the moment, to support someone who appeals to their fears and anxieties,”
    They’ve had 50+ years of training from guys just like you Rubes! You’re just sorry Trump is better at it.

  205. They’ve had 50+ years of training from guys just like you Rubes! You’re just sorry Trump is better at it.
    It’s not so much that Trump is better at it. He’s just more blatant about it.

  207. Plus I don’t think Rubio (or Cruz) could pull it off in the same way Trump is doing, for the same reasons that Rubio’s “insults” don’t work – it’s not their style/personality; or at least it’s not Rubio’s (Cruz style/personality just sucks all around).

  208. And Christie is enjoying himself:
    New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) said Monday he believed the GOP-controlled Senate should hold hearings on President Obama’s eventual nominee to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court.
    Curiouser and curiouser.

  209. Hounds of hell, yes:
    “If Donald Trump were to ever become the nominee immediately the hounds of hell will descend on him, tear him apart, everything he’s ever done from not releasing his taxes to all of his failed business dealings,” [Rubio] said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “And Hillary Clinton’s going to have a clear shot to the Oval Office.”
    I would have thought the Hounds of Hell would need to ascend, not descend, but Rubio likely knows better than I on HoH etiquette.

  210. I think Rubio is enough of a party man that his real worry is that the Hounds of Hell could descend on the rest of the GOP as well. Losing the white House would be unfortunate. Losing a lot of Senate and House seats, and maybe even a bunch at the state level, would be far more serious.

  211. Republican Hounds of Hell descend from on high from the their always forgiving God’s HellHound Pound.
    How do you think they keep all of we tax and spend liberal libertines from the Gates of Heaven?
    Angels with stun guns?
    We’ve been gnawed by the Hounds of Hell since Newt Gingrich got himself a boner dreaming up the back bench stabbings of his colleagues in the 1980s.
    Bring em on, Marco, you singular Ghoul of Genhanna!
    Are Trump’s hounds any worse than the drooling, maniacal, Satanic, sadistic promise you’ve made to murder 15 million Americans with preexisting conditions on your first day in office, if you show up for work that day?
    Trump is like Lucy Ricardo, little Ricky. She’s singing the solo during “Babaloo” at the Club in November and you and all of the Fred Mertz conservatives won’t know it until you hear the sour notes, which will sound familiar because they sound exactly like the off-key song you’ve been singing for 40 years.
    On topic: Any word lately on ISIS? Seems a minute ago they were chopping my head off in Denver and now what … did Obama’s military options make them lose territory and we can’t admit the swarthy one had a plan after all?
    It’s been a rough couple of years. First, I died of Ebola and then my head was chopped off, both without even leaving my apartment.
    Here’s what I really think. Trump, by comparison, is making the real murderers in the Republican Party look good by comparison, even to some moderates.
    He’s like the Joe Pesci character in “Goodfellas”. He’s taking out the made men. Don’t do dat. Christie will be the one who is asked to sweet talk and escort Trump to HIS “Made Man” ceremony in Vinny’s garage.
    It hadda be done.

  213. Prediction.
    Marco Rubio will accept Trump’s offer to be his running mate in November.
    Should they win, which they very well could, barring a fortuitous 9.9 earthquake with it’s epicenter in Cleveland, Trump will turn to Vice President Rubio the day before they take office in January and say, “Hey kid. I’m little weary from the campaign. My balls are so big, I’ve thrown my back out. Here’s the pen to sign the papers to abolish Obamacare. I know you’re a bloodthirsty little f*cker — I could see it in your eyes, despite the flop sweats — so I want you to have the honor of killing 15 million Americans on that first day. Show me what you’re made of.
    Maybe you could do photo-op with a Tea Party hyena drop-kicking a Negro’s goiter across the reflecting pond. Something terrific like that.
    Go get em, killer.”

  216. This guy will be in charge of the national birth control policy board during the next Republican Administration:
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/pete-nielsen-rape-trauma-prevents-pregnancy
    Apparently, there is something called legitimate rape. At least, that’s what they called it on prom night at his high school.
    None of this mere attempted rape that might lead to a family. It’s got to be legitimate to avoid illegitimate children, as opposed to the rabbits that breed in the big cities.
    Plus, after everything he said, he admits that he has given a lot of the thought to the matter as a father of five children, which sounds a lot creepy.
    “Daddy, what are you thinking about?”
    “You just no never mind, Hassie, and for pity’s sake quit swishing your tail like that. It gets a man to brainstorming and such.”
    Also, that he might not have his facts straight.
    Also, that he may have been thinking about the livestock he spends lots of time alone with on Federal land.
    The Vagina Is Down There Somewherealogues.
    Traumatize it and you’re home free, home on the range without raping fees.

  218. I’d like to have NASCAR speed no-limits on the Nation’s highways and byways.
    This 85 mph regulation sh*t is not what the Founders had in mind when they put mag wheels and overhead hemis in the Constipation.
    I’m an American and I’m flooring it without pussified seat belts and if you don’t wanna be roadkill, I’d say you ought to step to the shoulder, kids, if you can find it, cause we’re cutting those out of the budget.
    Anyone up for fully privatized highways with tolls every five miles?
    Uber this.

  221. At this point, i.e. after the Super Tuesday primaries, I can still see the possibility that nobody will arrive at the Republican convention with a majority of the delegates. But it seems most likely, indeed overwhelmingly most likely, that even then Trump ends up with the nomination.
    There may be some, perhaps even a lot, of delegates who are committed to “anyone but Trump.” But there don’t need to be all that many deciding that taking it away from someone with a serious plurality is a bad idea in order to put Trump over the top by the second ballot.

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